Well the Wild card round was pretty interesting… My ML bets went 2-2 for a small loss of -0.31 points, but it could have quite easily been a 4-0 weekend… I still can’t believe Blair Walsh missed that kick!
Arizona Cardinals v Green Bay Packers
I’ve backed the Cards plenty this season to much success as they’ve generally been underrated. I was hoping for a decent price to back them here but the odds are pretty much spot on according to my numbers: 1.33 – 3.60 on Pinnacle, Cards -7.5. So no bet here.
Carolina Panthers v Seattle Seahawks
Seattle were the “in form team” coming into the playoffs, but they were extremely lucky to get through against the Vikings. Not just the missed FG but the TD the Seahawks scored was fortunate to say the least. It made me remember reading somewhere that in the Superbowl the Patriots wanted to keep Wilson in the pocket and didn’t want him making plays with his legs.
Anyway the Seahawks didn’t play well, but still came through, something all good teams can do. This week I liked their odds earlier on and backed them outright at 2.30 on the ML. They opened up at +3 and have come into +1. By my numbers I’d have them at -1 but there’s a very small percentage difference between +1 and -1.
Part of the reason for the odds coming in is that Lynch has decided that he fancies playing football this week. To be honest I wouldn’t have wanted to play last week at temperatures of -17 degrees or whatever it was! Anyway, as always, the market reacts to the most replaceable position in football.
Denver Broncos v Pittsburgh Steelers
If Rapistburger was healthy then I’d be all over Pittsburgh at the current odds. But even if he plays there’s no way he’d he anywhere near 100%, and the Steelers reserve QBs have been terrible this season. So I’m happy to leave this alone pre-game. If Big Ben plays and looks like he’s been on the “deer antler spray” all week then I may back the Steelers in play.
New England Patriots v Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have won 11 straight games. Like most analytical/numbers/stats guys I’ve liked them for a while and I’m on the ML. Football Outsiders reckon they have a 52% chance of winning at the Patriots, I wouldn’t go that far but there’s still value to back them now.