2016 NFL Week 6 Picks


First decent week in the SuperContest going 3/5. I’ve already got one point in  after going for San Diego +3 in the Thursday night game. The prime reason for the pick was a contrarian strategy. I was expecting a lot of people to side with Denver, and I’ve got a lot of ground to make up. Unfortunately there wasn’t the number of people picking Denver. Most people prefer to give the Thursday night game a miss, but I incorrectly assumed that more people would be eager to back Denver -3 similar to the level that they were backed at Tampa Bay a couple weeks ago.

Supercontest picks:

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

Spoke briefly about this game mid week. The Philly ML opened up at just under evens at the squarest of square books. That didn’t last long, but there was still plenty of value to be had before it reached the 1.671 it is now.

Oakland Raiders 0

Another game I’ve picked in the SuperContest and backed in real life. You can still back the Raiders at decent odds IMO.

Atlanta Falcons +6.5

Yet again another game I’ve picked in the SuperContest and backed in real life. Based on results this season the Seahawks are overrated, they’re 3-1 but had played 4 of the worst teams in the league so far.

New Orleans +3

The Panthers have been bad this season, and Cam Newton is coming back from a concussion.

Other Bets:

  • Detroit v Rams
  • Dallas at GB

Both ML are still at available at decent odds IMO.

It’s been in the news recently that the NFL viewership is way down compared to last year. Here’s a couple of articles with the reasons why:



Although one reason that hasn’t been mentioned in the above article is that maybe, just maybe, people are finally getting sick of the long drawn out, stop-start nature of a football game. A game lasts 3 hours 10 mins but the ball is only actually in play 11 minutes. I watch RedZone each week as I find just watching the one game mind-numbingly boring to be honest.

NFL Power Rankings


We’ve had week 5 of the NFL season, so it time to release the first batch of my Flash Power Rankings™.

(for smart phone readers click on the icon in the top right with the 3 horizontal lines to view it)

Everybody loves Power Rankings, and most people love complaining about Power Rankings even more. It just sets your urine to boil when some bloke on the internet doesn’t rank your team higher enough, doesn’t it?!

Let’s have a little look at what’s going on:

Best Team

Philadelphia Eagles

Yeah I said it. These rankings aren’t predictive, based on the games so far the Eagles are the best team. They have the best scoring ratio by far, stuffed the Steelers and unluckily lost a close game to the Lions.

Yet just look at the price they opened up at v the Redskins, a team ranked 17th. Hmmm

Worst Team

Cleveland Browns

Clearly the worst team, I don’t think anyone can argue with that.

Best Team with a Losing Record

Arizona Cardinals

They’ve had some strange results so far, mainly due to the difference in turnovers. But they’re still a good team.

He’s not going on about turnovers again is he?!

  1. Lost a close game with the Patriots
  2. Thrashed Tampa Bay. TOs 0-5 (Tampa turned the ball over 5 times)
  3. Lost to the Bills. TOs 5-1.
  4. Lost to the Rams. TOs 5-1 again.
  5. Beat the 49ers TOs 0-3.

Worst Team with a Winning Record

Los Angeles Rams

I spoke about them last week, when my biggest bet was on the Bills to beat them. The Rams are hopeless offensively, with the worst average offensive yards per game, and the worst average points scored per game. The Lions opened up -3 at home to them this week and that’s a good bet.

Most Overrated

Seattle Seahawks

They’re 3-1 but look at the teams they’re faced so far:

  • 26 San Francisco 49ers
  • 27 Los Angeles Rams
  • 29 New York Jets
  • 31 Miami Dolphins

That’s 4 of the bottom 7 ranked teams. But its early days and if they beat the 5th ranked Atlanta Falcons this weekend then they’ll shoot right up the rankings. Looking at the current odds the Falcons are the clear value pick IMO.

Most Underrated

Buffalo Bills

Most other Power Rankings seem to have them in the 20s, I’ve got them 8th based on the games so far.

Although their TO record is +9 which is second only to the Vikings (+11). Neither of which is sustainable.

2016 NFL Week 5 Picks


Supercontest picks:

Buffalo Bills +2

I wrote about this game in my last post. This is the most obvious pick of the week and my bet of the week. My biggest pre-match bet this week on on the Bills ML, but all of the value has pretty much gone now as it’s a pick’em.

New York Giants +7.5

Another game that I wrote briefly about on Wednesday. The Packers have flattered to deceive so far this season, and if the Giants could go one game without conceding 2+ TOs that would be great.

Chicago Bears +4.5

The Colts are the first team to play in London that don’t then have a bye week. I’ve also got a small stake on the Bears to win.

Atlanta Falcons +5.5

Another road underdog. I’m a little bit late to the Falcons bandwagon. My rankings so far (which I’ll put up next week) have them ranked about 7th in the league. They have the most average offensive yards per game by far. Denver are obviously the better team but 5.5 points is a little too much for me.

Cincinnati Bengals -1.0

Finally a favourite. I would have thought that the Bengals would be favoured by a field goal at Dallas.

Nil Points!


Keen readers may have noticed that my SuperContest picks went 0/5. They were having a bad start to the season anyway, but that’s a real kick in the crotch! It’s pretty demoralising when you get the same number of points as the few people who forgot to submit any picks this week…

With a grand total of 5 points out of a possible 20, I’m currently 123rd out of 134 participants.. I’m beginning to think this may not be my year!

I’m not too bothered. It’s close to flipping coins, even the best bettors in the world are only hitting around 54% ATS. If you flipped a coin 5 times and were hoping for heads, 5 tails would come up 3.1% of the time. Which is very unlikely, but when you’re flipping a coin a set of 5 times, 17 times a season, then eventually you’re going to go 0/5.

My pre match bets were winless as well. Great. So after week 4 of the NFL season I’m up a total of £30. Which is down to a couple of big wins and many loses. I’ve said a few times on this blog before that betting on the NFL early on in the season is difficult as there’s not a lot of current information to go on. I’ve been including prior information from last season in my calculations so far, but it looks like Kansas City, Arizona, Jets etc aren’t as good as last year while teams like Philly (so far) are much improved.

Anyway looking ahead, I think the Giants are a massive price at Green Bay. Which looks like a case of the home team coming off a bye week being overrated. But the bet of the week looks like the Bills to win at the Rams. The Rams to me are clearly the worst team with a winning record. Only the Bears and Titans score less points per game than them, whilst they have the least average offensive yards per game in the league. Let’s have a look a their 4 games so far:

  1. Stuffed 28-0 by the mighty 49ers of San Fran…
  2. Won 9-3 home to the Seahawks, despite putting on 26 less yards but wining the TO battle 1-0.
  3. Won at Tampa Bay 37-32, despite putting on 152 less yards! (TOs were 2-2).
  4. Beat the Cards by only 4 points when they won the TO battle 5-1.

Doesn’t make for good reading. So I really like the Bills this week…but considering my recent record, what the hell do I know!

2016 NFL Week 4 Picks


Another poor week in the SuperContest, going 2/5. I’ve got to be due a good week now!

At least my only pre match bet won, with the Vikings winning at Carolina. I’ve found 3 longshots this week, which have all come in somewhat:

  • Cleveland at Washington. The Redskins opened up -10, which was a crazy line.
  • Kansas City at the Steelers. The Chiefs haven’t played well this season, but the numbers I’m running include results from last season still which improves their ranking.
  • SF49ers home to Dallas. 49ers are underrated and Dallas are missing Dez.

Supercontest picks:

Kansas City Chiefs +5

San Francisco 49ers +2.5

Tennessee Titans +5

JJ Watt is out for the season which is obviously huge. We’ve got 2 teams here who really struggle to score. They’ve both only scored 42 points so far which is the lowest in the league. The total is the 2nd lowest of the weekend behind the Jets/Seahawks game, so I’m siding with the team getting 5 points.

San Diego Chargers -4

The only home favourite this week. The total is currently 53.5 points, which is the highest total by far this weekend. The Saints cannot stop anyone, and have conceded the 2nd most offensive yards per play. The market thinks it’s going to be a high scoring game, I’ll go with the Chargers to cover 4 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

The thing with the SuperContest, apart from it being basically a coin flipping competition, is that you have to pick 5 games. Usually I’ve got to scrap the barrel to find a 5th pick, and this week is the same. I think that Tampa Bay are a little overrated but the main reason for this pick is that the vast majority of bets are on Denver -3, both number of tickets and amount of money wagered. The public are thinking that this is free money, but the line hasn’t moved at Pinnacle all week. Generally speaking, if you oppose the side that the public are backing heavily then you’ll come out on top.

Winners find a way to win betting on sports