NBA Thoughts

With roughly a quarter of the NBA season gone, here’s some points of interest from the season so far:

They are who we thought they are

Golden State are as expected, the best team in the league, and by some margin. They are nonchalantly destroying teams like they owe them money. They currently have the best Offensive Rating of all time:

nba-all-time-ortg

Whilst it is only a quarter of the way through the season, I firmly expect GSW to finish with the best ORtg ever. Interestingly, this year’s Toronto have a ORtg of 116.1 which is the second best ever. I don’t think this is sustainable because:

  • Lowry is a .359 career 3pt shooter currently shooting .422 this season
  • TRoss is a .381 career 3pt shooter currently shooting .456 this season
  • DeRozan is shooting unsustainable numbers on long twos

They’re a good team offensively, but certainly not “second best offense of all time” good.

Who aren’t who we thought they are?

Ok let’s have a look at who’s currently over/under performing compared to the preseason win totals:

6-12-16-nba-win

Houston are the over performing the most, whilst their Texas neighbours Dallas are having a nightmare. Mark Cuban seems to have developed a knack for backing losers…

One interesting thing about Houston over performing thus far is that they have the biggest discrepancy between games played at home v games played on the road:

nba-ha-splits

Houston have played 7 fewer games at home so far and still have over performed the most. At the other end of things Philly have played 9 more games at home. They’ve lost every game on the road so far. So they’ll be getting yet another lottery pick next year.

Grind & Grind is the real Clutch City

My over bet on Houston looks good so far. My over bet on Memphis looks er, less good. As per usual the Grizzlies are over performing their point differential. Their Pythagorean wins is 10 but they’ve currently won 14. Even though I’m generally not a fan of the word ‘clutch’, they have been exactly that:

  • Played 4 OT games, won all 4
  • Played in 8 games decided by 5 points or less, won all 8.
  • Played in 5 games decided by 3 points or less, won all 5.

These are by far the best records in the league, and they’ve done this despite injuries to Parons, Conley and Carter. Looks like I was wrong on the them, but I’ve got to give them a lot of credit.

How about them Lakers?

Pre season the Lakers win total was 24.5 games. They’re currently 10-13. What happened?

Luke Walton happened.

luke-walton-crop_11_10Back when he was coaching GSW in Kerr’s absence last season they went 39-4 with him there. People were raving about him while I was more reserved as any mistake you make may not be realised when you have a team that good. Luke Walton may very well be the real deal as with the Lakers, their players are either young and promising, or old and past it. He’s even managed to get Swaggy P to play well!

Image result

The only plausible explanation to get production from this noted moron is that Walton is a coaching god.

According to fivethirtyeight’s projections, for which you need to take with a pinch of salt, the Lakers have a 16% chance of making the playoffs. This seems about right TBF as their defence is ranked 28th, but if they do then Walton would surely win the COY.

NFL Week 13 Picks

weekwildcard

Ironically 3 days after promising to write about more just a weekly NFL post… the next post is the weekly NFL post! I’ve got a couple of posts half written that will go out next week. And I’m gonna to finish off the NFL season anyway.

With only 5 weeks to go in my Supercontest I’m 13 points off the top..I’m beginning to think I may not win it this year…

Atlanta Falcons -4 home to Kansas City Chiefs

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 home to Washington Redskins

Seattle Seahawks -6.5 home to Carolina Panthers

There’s 3 home favourites I’m taking this week, which is quite rare for me. With Arizona I was tempted by the number foremost, being the right side of a key number. Seattle are currently -7.5 on pinny. And Atlanta was my 5th choice/scrapping the barrel pick.

Denver Broncos -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

It opened at -5 but now it’s in to -3.5.

New York Jets +2 home to Indianapolis Colts

Another move that I’m the ‘wrong side’ of, it opened up a pick’em.  I’m ok with it.

Other bets :

ML Bets where there is still some value:

  • Houston
  • Giants
  • Panthers
  • Denver
  • Philly

State of the Blog

writers-block-vintage

Looking back at recent posts, I’ve only been writing one post a week, and that has been about NFL. When I started this blog this wasn’t the plan. I don’t even enjoy watching the NFL anymore! I only bet on it because I make money on it, or at least I used to. My NFL picks haven’t been very good this season, I’m currently  3.72 points down.

Anyway. So if we’re being honest: this blog hasn’t been a riveting read recently. It hasn’t been fun to write either. My problem has been setting aside time to write something and recently I’ve just been writing about NFL picks as I’ve forced myself to write something before Sunday afternoon.

So my choices are currently:

Either improve the quantity of posts and the overall quality or pack it in…

…to the dozens of Winners Win readers around the world: fear not! I’m going to up my game blog wise.

I don’t want to spend a massive amount of time on this blog. It’s not like it’s bringing any money in. So I’m just going to have to be more efficient in writing.

 

2016 NFL Week 12 Picks

week17

Another good week last week winning 2.78 points. I’ve nearly got myself back to break even on the season, as I’m only 1.72 points down.

Supercontest picks:

Buffalo Bills -7.5 home to Jacksonville Jaguars

Hard week to choose and I’m starting off with choosing the Bills, again, I’m nothing if not predictable. The line at pinny went up to -10 but is currently at -8.5.

Tennessee Titans -4.5 at Chicago Bears

Currently it’s at -6, so least I’m on the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 at Baltimore Ravens

Even with the Bengals injuries I don’t think the Ravens should be favoured by a number like this.

Carolina Panthers +3 at Oakland Raiders

New York Jets +8 home to New England

With the last pick here I’m backing the Jets whilst opposing the Pats…I may very well regret this.

Other bets :

ML Bets where the value has gone:

  • Philly
  • Bengals

2016 NFL Week 11 Picks

week16

NFL Power Rankings updated.

Last week I finally had a good week on the NFL. I went 6-2 for +4.65 points.

Supercontest picks:

New Orleans Saints +3.5 at Carolina Panthers

First time I’ve made a pick on the Thursday night game for a while. I didn’t think that the Panthers should have been favoured by that many points, ie the wrong side of a key number.

Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 at Seattle Seahawks

Buffalo Bills +2.5 at Cincinnati Bengals

Yet again I’m taking these 2 teams…

Tennessee Titans +3 at Indianapolis Colts

Miami Dolphins -2.5 at LA Rams

Other bets :

ML Bets where the value has gone:

  • Tampa Bay
  • Tennessee
  • Philly
  • Bills