2017 Predictions

predicitons

2017 is here, it has a tough act to follow as 2016 was pretty amazing! I thought it would be fun to write some predictions for the coming year for area that I have some interest/knowledge in:

NBA

Regular season award winners:

  • MVP- James Harden
  • COY – Mike D’Antoni
  • ROY – Joel Embiid

The first hot-take is that I’m fully expecting the Cavs to meet the Warriors in the finals for the third straight year. Yes, that’s a bold prediction! The Cavs are getting back to the finals easily, beating Toronto in the EC finals. GSW also getting back to the finals easily, beating Houston in the WC finals.

So, GSW will beat the Cavs in the finals with Kevin Durant being named the Finals MVP.

Rugby Union

England will retain the 6 nations championship, but won’t get the Grand Slam.

While New Zealand had an impressive 2016, they took a step back as the New Zealand of 2015 is the greater team I’ve ever seen. As for 2017, they’ll win the Rugby Championship again easily and will beat the Lions 3-0. The Lions have a quick turnaround after the end of the season in the northern hemisphere, the Lions are never equal to the sum of their parts, and New Zealand rarely lose at home. The All Blacks haven’t lost at home since 2009 (v South Africa) and have won 45 consecutive matches at home.

A New Zealand series win is currently at 1.22, and 3-0 is 1.91…I don’t think there’s any value there, not yet anyway.

NFL

New England are justifiably the favourites to win Superbowl 51, but if you’re backing them around 2.80 then you’re a mug IMO. I don’t have any strong views on the Superbowl other than Lady Gaga is a dead cert to make an absolute tit of herself doing the halftime show.

UFC

Ronda Rousey won’t be back.

Jon Jones will be back and will reclaim his Light-Heavyweight belt.

Conor McGregor has had the best moment of his career. He’ll never top holding two belts at Madison Square Garden. By the end of 2017 he’ll be holding no belts.

Michael Bisping had an amazing 2016. Beat Anderson Silva, beat Rockhold for the title and defended it against Henderson. If he’s stupid enough to face Woodley, he’ll get destroyed. He’ll lose his belt this year and will retire.

World Events

People who don’t like Trump will continue to freak out even over the most insignificant things. People that do like him will be pissed off when nothing really changes.

In the UK there’ll be a stitch-up over Brexit. Article 50 will be triggered in March but the UK will still be in the EU by the end of the year as there’ll be a lengthy negotiating period and ultimately a “soft Brexit” (which isn’t a Brexit) in 2018/19.

In Europe anti-EU sentiment will inevitably rise even more, which will be reflected in the elections.

The Winnies 2016

oscars

Here’s the end of year awards for this place, Winners Win: The Winnies! I started this blog back in March 2015, so this is first whole calendar year of the blog. With the final post of the year, here’s a rundown of the best moments from 2016:

Best Bet

I haven’t posted any massive long shot winners this year, not like the Steph Curry MVP win of the previous season. Backing Denver to win Superbowl 50 was one that springs to mind…but the “best bet” is going to go to backing the Portland Trailblazers to win over 26.5 games. They were the first team to hit their over in the 2015/16 season and finished up winning 44 games.

Worst Bet

My NFL bets have had a poor year. But the worst was going “balls deep”, as the kids would say, on Golden State in the NBA finals. I still think they were the better team, but Curry wasn’t 100% in the Finals, Draymond got suspended for game 5 and then they blew a 3-1 lead…which has since been memed to death.

3-1lead

Most Popular Blog Post

Last year the most popular post was Conclusion of a Short Story on Martingale. This year is the first part of that story that’s the most popular. A lot of people seem to find their way to this place by googling for Martingale systems. Hopefully they’ll learn that  Martingale is not a good idea with a real life example of how you’re going to lose a lot of money.

Best Search Term

Some people have used the following search term on Google and found their way here:

fobt

Whoa.

Using that search term will bring up a post a wrote about the BBC programme Britain at the Bookies. The main point of that post was that I didn’t think FOBTs should be banned. If someone’s googling that search term then this is serious business and hopefully they’ve been pointed to a website that can actually help them.


Hope you all have a Happy New Year, see you in 2017!

Merry Christmas!

week16

Merry Christmas everyone!

Now, at work we’ve had & received Christmas messages that purposefully do not mention the word “Christmas” for fear of offending anyone. Including the title that’s 4 instances of the word Christmas (5 now), and if anyone is offended, please, fuck off.

What happened to peace and good will to all men?!

Yes, yes, fair point. And women too! Seriously, Merry Christmas to one and all. Hope you have a great day, whatever you’re doing. And I have the same advice as last year: doesn’t drink too much, eat too much, or spend too much time with your family. Remember, everything in moderation.

Also remember that while the TV on Christmas day is horrendous, the NBA has a series of high profile games with the main event being Golden State at the Cavs at 19:30 GMT.


NFL Week 16 SuperContest bets:

Buffalo Bills -3.5 home to Miami Dolphins

Washington Redskins -3 at Chicago Bears

Atlanta Falcons -2.5 at Carolina Panthers

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 home to San Francisco 49ers

Cincinnati Bengals +1 at Houston Texans

NFL Week 15 Picks

Dallas-cowboys-cheerleaders

There’s only 3 weeks left in the regular season in the NFL. In my SuperContest I’ve only got 31.5 points out of a possible 70. Not good. The only thing I have to play for is to get above 50%.

SuperContest bets:

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 at Houston texans

Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 at Baltimore Ravens

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 home to New Orleans Saints

San Diego Chargers +3 home to Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos +3.5 home to New England Patriots

Other bets :

ML Bets where the value’s gone:

  • Philly
  • San Diego
  • Denver

Winning and Losing

If you’ve been paying attention recently my NFL bets have been pretty poor this season.

The good news is that my basketball betting has started the season very well. I’ve actually just had my best ever week & best ever month betting, which is down to the NBA. Looking back at my records November & December are usually a very months for me. As it’s early in the season and there’s plenty of value to be had if you can quickly figure out which teams are under/overrated compared to their preseason expectations. Also if you can have a good idea of which teams are just running hot over a small number of games.

I have many more bets on basketball than on NFL, and my stakes are many more times greater on basketball. So the way things are going I’m may very well stop betting on NFL all together.

I’ve said before that I find watching a single game of NFL extremely boring. And any time that I spend tracking results & odds could be better spent elsewhere, and will help to cut down on screen time. I put in a lot more work on basketball, I enjoy watching it even without a bet on(!). I know the amount of work I put in on basketball to be successful betting on it, and don’t do anywhere near that level on the NFL. Not that I want to either. It’s got to the stage where I would struggle to name the starting QB on each NFL team, and I wouldn’t be able to name many other players. But I could name who the 2nd backup center is for the Bucks and what he’s good & bad at.

Some people bet on many different sports, and obviously aren’t experts in all or even any of those sports. But are just getting a good number or chasing steam. Or perhaps they are following a friend or tipster. Whatever the method, they’re successful at betting on many different sports.

I prefer to specialise. It’s working for me. It’s not so much knowing the right bets to put on, it’s knowing the ones to avoid too.