Another poor week in the SuperContest, going 2/5. I’ve got to be due a good week now!
At least my only pre match bet won, with the Vikings winning at Carolina. I’ve found 3 longshots this week, which have all come in somewhat:
- Cleveland at Washington. The Redskins opened up -10, which was a crazy line.
- Kansas City at the Steelers. The Chiefs haven’t played well this season, but the numbers I’m running include results from last season still which improves their ranking.
- SF49ers home to Dallas. 49ers are underrated and Dallas are missing Dez.
Kansas City Chiefs +5
San Francisco 49ers +2.5
Tennessee Titans +5
JJ Watt is out for the season which is obviously huge. We’ve got 2 teams here who really struggle to score. They’ve both only scored 42 points so far which is the lowest in the league. The total is the 2nd lowest of the weekend behind the Jets/Seahawks game, so I’m siding with the team getting 5 points.
San Diego Chargers -4
The only home favourite this week. The total is currently 53.5 points, which is the highest total by far this weekend. The Saints cannot stop anyone, and have conceded the 2nd most offensive yards per play. The market thinks it’s going to be a high scoring game, I’ll go with the Chargers to cover 4 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
The thing with the SuperContest, apart from it being basically a coin flipping competition, is that you have to pick 5 games. Usually I’ve got to scrap the barrel to find a 5th pick, and this week is the same. I think that Tampa Bay are a little overrated but the main reason for this pick is that the vast majority of bets are on Denver -3, both number of tickets and amount of money wagered. The public are thinking that this is free money, but the line hasn’t moved at Pinnacle all week. Generally speaking, if you oppose the side that the public are backing heavily then you’ll come out on top.