NFL Week 3

Unsurprisingly, I’ve made the extremely easy but boring choice to select the Panthers -4.5 as my first pick this week. Seriously, if anyone’s taking part in any NFL Supercontest, and is not choosing the Panthers then they’re either stupid or they just don’t know what they’re doing or they’ve forgotten to amend their picks. The line is -4.5 when most bookies haven’t had a line up until Drew Brees was ruled out of the game with an injury. Right now the Panthers are -10.

In the official LVH Supercontest the Panthers this weekend are the most picked team in Supercontest history with 713 picks out of 1727 contestants (41%). The previous record was the Cardinals in week 9 of 2014 with 685 picks out of 1403 contestants (49%). That was when the Cardinals (+3.5) won 28-17 at Dallas with Tony Romo out for Cowboys.

So only 41% of LVH contestants chose the Panthers. I was going to say there’s a lot of idiots taking part but I’ve checked the LVH rules and picks have to be before 11am on Saturday at the latest. If you’re making a pick on the Thursday night game they all have to be in before then. Plus you can only submit picks once, no amendments. Drew Brees was ruled out on Friday. So logistically if a contestant couldn’t’ delay making their picks until after Brees was ruled out then that’s fine. But if they made their picks after he was ruled out and didn’t choose the Panthers…then they’re an idiot.

There’s actually 46 people who chose the Saints this weekend, so they should be disqualified from taking further part in the competition to save them embarrassing themselves further.

I mentioned in my previous post that I’ve got money on the Colts at -3.5. I’ve chosen them with my second pick which was –3. For me this is an obvious pick to make, hopefully normality will resume with the Colts not committing 5 turnovers and beating a mediocre team.

Denver -3 at Detroit on Monday night is my 3rd pick. There’s been some injury worries about Matthew Stafford but he’s expected to play.

Oh no the elite QB  Matthew Stafford’s potentially injured?

Said no one ever.

Stafford Dan
Spot the Difference: Matthew Stafford & Desperate Dan

I’m not a fan of Stafford. Anyone could look good playing with Calvin Johnson. All you have to do is throw it in the vague, general direction of Megatron and he’ll somehow catch it. Anyway, I think the market’s still has too little faith in Peyton Manning.

Next up, the Bills +2.5 at Miami. I haven’t been impressed with Miami so far this season. The HFA in the NFL is 2.8 points. So this line is roughly saying that if Miami were to play Buffalo on a neutral field it would be 50/50. I’m not having that, Buffalo are the better team.

Final pick, which is my least favourite of the 5 is the Jets -2.5 at home to Philly. As previously mentioned in my Turnovers post. I did want to change this pick for San Diego at the Vikings but I missed the pick-change deadline. This is another game where the line suggests that Viking Chargers on a neutral field would be a pick’em. BS, the Chargers are a better team. But I’m fine with the Jets.

Other non picked games thoughts:

I would choose the Steelers over the Rams if I had to. I wouldn’t want to pick the Texans at -7 against anyone, even a bad team like Tampa. I quite like the Bears +14.5 over Seattle. I’d also choose Jacksonville +13.5 if I had to. It’s very rare that I’d choose to lay that many points.

The Ravens -2.5 Cincinnati line is fair. The Ravens haven’t looked good in 2 games while the Bengals have. But I don’t expect the Ravens to have shown their true selves yet and I would side with them.

I like Arizona -6.5 over the 49ers. The Cards, especially with Palmer back, are underrated. They’ve stuffed 2 bad teams already, now they play another bad team at home. Finally, I’d go with Kansas +7 over Green Bay. Betting market loves Green Bay at home. Value’s on KC.

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