The Winnies 2015

Here’s the end of year awards for this place, Winners Win: The Winnies! I started this blog back in March, so it’s not quite a year old yet. With the final post of the year, here’s a rundown of the best moments from 2015:

Best Bet

Steph Curry MVP

Backing Curry at 33/1 to win the MVP for the 2014/15 season was definitely the best bet of the blog’s short life so far.

Worst Bet

Lebron most PPG

Obviously I’ve had plenty of bets this year where I’ve backed a team to win, it’s a +EV bet, but they’ve ended up getting destroyed. It happens. But backing Lebron to be the Points per game leader last regular season is one bet that I should never have placed in the first place as it wasn’t +EV.

My Jeb Bush GOP nomination bet is looking like a goner right now. I liked it at the time at 2.80, he’s now around 10.00. Part of the reason is that Trump’s been a total spanner in the works, but I still don’t think he can win it.

Most Popular Blog Post

Conclusion of a Short Story on Martingale was the most popular post of the year. It’s a good story that I enjoy telling. It’s funny how many supposedly intelligent people use this scheme and all end up with the same result.

Best Comment

The Best Comment of the year belong to “Jonny” who left the following comment on my NFL Week 4 post:

Holy shit that cheerleader is so fine


Jonny makes a accurate observation.

Best Search Term

In a preview I wrote about the Cavs Chicago Series in the Second round of the NBA playoffs, I sarcastically wrote:

The big news coming into this series is that Kevin Love is out for the playoffs with a dislocated shoulder. What a pussy!

As a result someone using the following search term on Google found their way here:


Hope you all have a Happy New Year, see you in 2016!

NFL Week 16

First off I hope you’ve had a Merry Christmas. I hope you haven’t drank too much, eaten too much, or spent too much time with your family. Remember, everything in moderation!

One of the best things around this time of year is the amount of sport on. If you like soccer there’s a load of that on. The NBA had a series of high profile games on Christmas Day which are always much appreciated by me. And the NFL has a full slate of games on this week. There’s only 2 weeks left in the regular season. Unfortunately it doesn’t look like I’m going to finish in the money in the Supercontest.


Supercontest Picks:

  • Bengals +3.5 Again, even without Dalton, I’m on the Bengals.
  • Ravens +10 I like the number considering the they’re at home against their old enemy. 10 points is too much for me considering.
  • Miami -1.5 thank you very much.
  • New Orleans +2.5 I’m happy with the likelihood that Brees will play.
  • Lions -9.5. 49ers are bad, Gabbert is terrible.

Proper bets:


    • Redskins 2.50 (+150)
    • Bears 2.50 (+150)
    • Ravens 5.00 (+400)
    • Bengals 2.65 (+165)

Shrimps, Barbies and Betting

Today there was a story about a cricketer placing a bet on a cricket match. It’s not half as bad as what you would think:

Here’s the link:

And here’s the whole story :

Angela Reakes: Player punished for £4.36 bets on World Cup final

An Australian cricketer has received a two-year suspended sentence for bets totalling Aus $9 (£4.36) during the 2015 Cricket World Cup.

Angela Reakes, 24, of the ACT Meteors in the Women’s National Cricket League, was guilty of breaching Cricket Australia’s (CA) anti-corruption code.

She pleaded guilty to placing five bets on the Australia v New Zealand final man-of-the-match betting market.

CA integrity unit chief Iain Roy said: “Angela knows she made a bad mistake.”

He added: “All elite cricketers are reminded regularly that betting on any form of cricket is strictly prohibited.”

Australia won the World Cup final in March, beating New Zealand, with James Faulkner named man-of-the-match.

So Female Aussie Cricketer places a bet on the Aussie Men’s cricket team, and she got a two-year suspended sentence. Because, you know, anti-corruption. Glad someone’s thinking of the children.

Everyone knows that cricket had/has a shady element to it with spot fixing, match fixing and even past Aussie greats Shane Warne and Mark Waugh provided information to a bookmaker, for a fee of course. But this is a total overreaction if you ask me. (Yes I know it’s “just” a suspended sentence, but she shouldn’t even have that IMO).

Just to be clear, she bet on a game that she wasn’t taking part in, for a whopping £4.36…I’m assuming that’s all she could get down as her account has been restricted by [insert shitty retail bookmaker of your choice].

She should have got a friend or family member to place the bet for her if she simply had to have a bet on. Aussies are the biggest gamblers in the world after all, as this story reminds me:

Strewth! Lay off the pokies Sheila!


General Betting

NFL Week 15

What an awful week to pick games. I’ve had to scrap the barrel for 3 of my Supercontest picks…

Due to more Xmas shenanigans this week’s post is late and it’s going to be pretty brief:


Supercontest Picks:

  • Bengals -4.5 Even without Dalton they can cover this against a terrible 49ers team.
  • Ravens +7.5 I like the number. Chiefs are a much better team but don’t blow teams away.
  • Packers -3 “Always back Rodgers bruh!”
  • Bills -1 Scraping the barrel.
  • Miami +2 I had to make another pick.

Proper bets:


    • Rams 1.90 (-111)
    • Falcons 1.91 (-110)
    • Bears 3.10 (+210)
    • Cards 1.61 (-164)
    • Bills 1.91 (-110)
    • Denver 3.57 (+257)
    • Bengals 1.67 (-149)
    • Lions 2.47 (+147)

NFL Week 14

Just 4 weeks left in the regular season. I’m 4 points off the top in my Supercontest, so I need to have 4 good weeks in finish in the money.

Fortunately the picks this week pretty much picked themselves.

First pick is one that every single person should be making: Seattle -6.5 at the Ravens. They’re currently -11 on Pinnacle. You’re getting 6.5 points here, and going through the key numbers of 7 and 10. I’ve criticised people not making picks like this before. If you’re not on Seattle -6.5 you don’t know what you’re doing. Out of 125 people in my Supercontest, only 56 have made this pick. Mind you there’s 23 people who forgot to make any picks at all… Idiots.

Seattle have climbed right up to 5th place in my Rankings. Top place is now the Cincinnati Bengals. Who are only favoured by 2.5 points at home to Pittsburgh. Even if they were on a neutral field I’d have them favoured by more than 2.5 points so I’m on the Bengals with my 2nd pick. I’m also on the Bengals ML with some hard-earned too.

New England have dropped down to 3rd in my Rankings after losing to the Eagles last week. We’ve got a couple of overreactions to that freak result: I’m on New England -3 in the Contest and on them ML too. I’m opposing the Eagles by backing the Bills +1.5 ATS. Despite their injuries and last 2 results, New England should be favoured by more than 3 points at Houston.

Another easy pick that everyone in the contest who knows what they are doing has made: the Lions pick’em at the Rams. The Lions are currently -3.5 on Pinnacle. Only 28 people in my Supercontest are on Detroit too.

Final pick is the Bears -3 at home to the Redskins.

“Did you just say “Redskins” instead of “Washington Football Team””?!!

Sure did. The Redskins have lost every road game this season. I was tempted to make the final pick the Giants at Miami, as I’m on the Giants ML.

So there you have it. On the face of it, 3 of my picks are 3 of the top teams in the NFL: New England, Seattle & Cincinnati. Looks square, I don’t think it is though. Honest.


Supercontest Picks:

  • Bengals -2.5
  • Lions (Pick ’em)
  • Bears -3
  • Patriots -3
  • Seahawks -6.5

Proper bets:


  • Bills +1.5


  • Giants 2.00 (+100 US)
  • Patriots 1.62 (-161)
  • Bengals 1.71 (-141)