NBA 2015/16 Season Update

We’ve just had the All Star Break in the NBA so it’s a decent time to check in on my season bets and look ahead to the remainder of the regular season.

Check out my season preview from October: NBA 2015/16 Season Preview. It has the bets I’ve got on and some blurb. I’ve put on some bets on since that I’ll add here.

Season Win Totals

Lets start off with a nice overview of each team’s expected Win% based on the pre-season win total lines, compared to their current win%:

NBA ASB Update

Portland are doing the best compared to their pre-season expectations, and have already hit the over (green). More on Portland later. Houston have already hit the under as if they won every single remaining game, they’d only have 54 wins.

Boston Celtics 42.5 games – Over (Should Win)

Currently 32-24 (57%). Need to go 11-15 (42%) or better for the over.

I mentioned before that I thought this was the best Season Win Totals bet. I’m confident that it’ll hit looking at their remaining schedule, and they have 14/26 games at home.

Charlotte Hornets 32.5 games – Over

I would have bet the shit out of the over. But then MKG got injured, he’s out for the season so I ‘m avoiding this one now. He’s their best player, great defender and underrated.  With him they would have certainly won more than 32 games. They could probably still do it.

MKG was supposedly going to be out for the whole season. He came back at the end of January, playing 29 mins per game…er ok, nothing to see here. He’s injured again and out for season, again. So I expect he’ll be playing again next week.

Charlotte only need to win another 5 games to hit their Over. I expect them to make the playoffs. They could provide an upset in the first round of the playoffs if they end up with a 5-7 seed, providing Batum’s healthy, he’s clearly their best player now.

Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 games – Over (Very likely a loss)

Currently 17-39 (30%). Need to go 9-17 (35%) or better for the over.

They started 8-8 but it’s been downhill from there really. Looking at their remaining fixtures I can’t see them winning 9 games. I don’t know where to start with this team… so much is/was going well: Towns looks amazing: a future MVP. Wiggins looks good. LaVine has the ability to be a good player if not the brains. Rubio can’t shoot but is still an important player and has played a lot more games this season. But their bench is terrible and they are coached by a moron in Sam Mitchell:

Albert Square - Eastenders.jpg

Sorry, wrong Sam Mitchell! But she wouldn’t do a much worse job. Coach Sam Mitchell can’t even be trusted to buy a suit that fits! Appointing him on a full-time basis would be a disaster.

LA Lakers 29.5 games – Under (Should almost certainly Win)

Currently 11-45 (20%). Need to go 19-7 (73%) or better for the over.

Looking back now, it’s laughable that the line was 29.5 games. What has been a train wreck of a season has been overshadowed by the Kobe Bryant Retirement travelling circus.

Chalk up another win for the Lakers Under.

Portland Trailblazers 26.5 games – Over (Already Won!)

There’s no way Portland are going to be a team that wins less than 27 games.

Miami Heat 46.5 games – Under (Could go either way)

Currently 31-24 (56%). Need to go 16-11 (59%) or better for the over.

Could go either way but I’m optimistic of a win as Bosh is out indefinitely with a re-occurrence of blood clots, and Wade is finally starting to miss some time as per usual. Plus their points differential is much better than their W-L record.

Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 games – Under (Could go either way)

Currently 40-15 (73%). Need to go 18-9 (67%) or better for the over.

I’m optimistic of a win despite them having to go worse than 67% (!) as they have to play 17/27 on the road. Out of the 10 remaining home games, 5 are against Cleveland, GSW, San Antonio and the Clippers (twice). Plus the Thunder are 6 games behind the Spurs & 4 in front of the Clippers so it’s very likely that they’ll end up with the 3rd seed. So if Donovan is smart he’ll rest/restrict minutes for KD & Russ for the playoffs.

Rookie of the Year

A few weeks into the season it was clear to me that Karl Anthony Towns was the best rookie. So I backed him at 3.50 even after his price had dropped from the pre-season highs at 8-1 (IIRC).

It looks extremely likely that he’s gonna win the ROY.

Most Blocks per Game

I put some money on Rudy Gobert at 3/1. The thinking was that with increasing his minutes this season he would get more blocks. That has happened, slightly, but Whiteside’s blocks have gone through the roof and he’ll win this award easily.

Whiteside’s such a stats whore: he’s more interested in blocking shots than contesting shots. If he has no chance of a block he won’t even put a hand up sometimes. He also values rebounds over boxing out. There’s been some chat this season about his underwhelming on/off numbers this season.

Coach of the Year

Ok I backed Stevens at odds around 12/1 pre-season. As I was high on Portland I thought that they were in with a chance of sneaking the 8th seed. Rather that put money on Portland to make the playoffs, I figured a better shot would be to back Terry Stotts for COY at 100/1: If they made the playoffs after losing 4 starters and being projected to win 27 games then Stotts gets COY. Only put a small amount on that happening, unfortunately in hindsight.

Ok so who’s in contention for COY?

 The rules to the COY:

“Jesus Christ, You don’t know the rules?!”
  1. It usually goes to the coach of the team that has won the most games.
    • Well this is GSW but you can’t give the coach of the year to Kerr when GSW went 39-4 with Luke Walton coaching as Kerr was out having back surgery. GSW are so good that my Grandmother could coach them to a similar record as long as she had 5 players on court and played Curry around 35 mins a night. GSW are having a historically great season, and the Spurs slightly less so, so could you give the award to one over the other?
  2. or the coach of the team with the most “unexpected” wins (Actual wins – expected wins)
    • Check out the graphic at the top of the page. Portland is leading in the most “unexpected wins” so far, and have a very good chance of making the playoffs. If they make it, Stotts is COY.Obviously the strength of the coach goes into what the betting market thinks the win total line is/should be. Boston wouldn’t have had a line of 42.5 wins with their squad without a coach as good as Stevens. So Stevens is still in with a chance if Boston can get a highish seed for the playoffs.
  3. It does not go to the coach of the defending champs*
    • Rules out Kerr
  4. And nobody wins back to back COY. NOBODY!
    • Rules out Budenholzer, not that he’s in with a chance.

*The only coach of the reigning NBA champions to win COY was Red Auerbach of the Boston Celtics back in 1964/65.

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