A few months ago I wrote about the UK General Election. I have an interest in politics, I find it interesting. Right now the key focus of world politics is surrounding this man:

Despite being what I would consider a joke candidate without any credible policies, this man does have some skills. He’s an expert in surviving multiple bankruptcies, and he’s excellent at generated a great deal of publicity. Although when you have a ridiculous haircut and come out with a load of racist/sexist rubbish, it’s easy to get a lot of attention.

Despite the Trump hype machine I firmly expect to see Jeb Bush emerge as the Republican candidate for the 2016 presidential election. So I was surprised to see his odds around 2.5 (+150 US) to 2.75 (+1.75). Recently the US books had him at 3.0 (+200), now he’s is down to 2.8 (+180). Even at 2.5 (+150) that’s a cracking bet.

What can predict the Eventual Nominee?

“Since 1980, the single best predictor of a party’s nominee is the number of endorsements from party elites — elected officials and prominent past party leaders — in the months before primaries begin”

 –political scientist Lynn Vavreck

Political Elites will endorse candidates that they believe can win the election for their Party. Endorsements also matter as voters can be directly influenced if they trust the judgement of their Representative/Governor/Senator etc. Plus each endorsement provides some positive media attention for a candidate.

Money & Connections

Money matters. It’s a sign of a candidate’s strength and Jeb Bush has raised the most money by a large margin:

$120 million is an insane amount of money. Back in March Jeb Bush was asking wealthy donors not to donate more than $1 million. He had so much money he was asking people not to donate too much! By comparison Trump has ‘only’ raised $1.9 million.

Bush doesn’t just have the most money, he has the important money backing him. In December 73% of the Wall Street Journal’s richest CEOs have given him their backing.

Hillary Clinton will be the Democrat candidate, not even her latest scandal of a server-sized amount of missing emails will change that. The Republican party won’t want a political lightweight going up against Clinton, Jeb Bush is their best bet. Someone with as much/more in terms of family name, connections, power and money as Hillary.