Week 10 was a much improved week’s betting. Supercontest selections went 3-2 and the proper bets finished up with 2.43pts.

Lets look ahead to what madness the NFL season has for us this week:

Remember a few weeks ago when the Broncos hosted the Packers? Those were the days. Two undefeated teams. Two Superbowl contenders. Now those two teams are viewed with the same sort of disdain you look at your illegitimate ginger son. What the hell happened?

Well Green Bay have lost 3 straight games. The Mugs who used to say “Never bet against Aaron Rodger, bro” are probably saying the exact opposition now. Remember a couple of week ago in my Reflections post when I spoke of flukey wins? If you don’t remember or are late to the party here at Winners Win here it is:

Without taking into account team strength or who’s playing at home (yes I know these are both important) if a team has more offensive yards, and wins the TO battle they win 92.3% of the time!

Now check out the box score from the Packers Lions game last weekend:

If you just look at those stats you’d have to ask how in seven hells Green Bay lost! Yes I know it doesn’t show you the context during the course of the game, but 372-287 offensive yards and 1 TO to nil. 22-16 1st downs as well!

So the Packers now stand at 6-3 with one loss a flukey loss, and the Vikings are 7-2 with two flukey wins. Green Bay are the slight dogs in this game at +1. If they hadn’t managed to find a way to lose against the Lions they wouldn’t be +1, they’d be favoured by 3 points or so. Enough, first Supercontest pick is the Packers +1. Even though I’ve said that the Packers have been overrated for most of the season, people are too down on them now, and I still have the Vikings as being an average team (slightly above average now).

Next up: backing the Broncos. It’s always interesting to see how Superstars perform late into their 30s. Generally speaking, sportsmen’s performance gradually declines past their mid-twenties and some time past 30 it falls off a cliff. Peyton Manning’s performance has fallen off a cliff, and plummeted deep into the earth’s core where it is kept company by the performance of Kobe Bryant. I suppose when you’re had 17 neck surgeries, have no feelings in your finger tips and have a  torn plantar fascia it’s hard to play QB. Anyway in a lot of respects Manning has been amongst the very worst QBs in the league, which is weird, but true. To some extent, Denver are sitting at 7-2 in spite of him. So he’s out this weekend and is replaced by Brock Osweiler. You’re probably wondering who is Brock Osweiler, and why would any mother call their son ‘Brock’, but I make the line to be too much of an overreaction and am on the Broncos ML and +1 in the Supercontest.

3rd pick in the Supercontest is the weekly injury-related easy to make pick: Jets -2 at the Texans. Brian Hoyer will either be out, or start and obviously not be 100%.

4th pick is me putting my faith in a team that has burned me plenty this season: the Baltimore Ravens. -2 at home to the Rams is the right side of a key number, and more importantly value in my book. I even backed them outright to win the match. At the risk of repeating myself from weeks gone by: they’re better than their record, and have been very unlucky which is partly due to currently having the joint worst TO differential. They have only received 5 turnovers in their favour, which is the fewest in the league. The Rams struggle on offence and I doubt Case Keenum at QB will make much of a difference.

Final pick is Miami at a pick ’em at home to the Cowboys. Dallas have Romo back at QB which is the reason for the line. He hasn’t played for a long time and he’s not going to solve all of the Cowboys’ problems.

Other thoughts:

• Backed the Patriots -7 at home to the Bills. Surprised this isn’t double digits. It isn’t as Julian Edelman is out. The Pats are still going to be awesome.
• Arizona was a big winner for me last week, winning in Seattle. Barring an epic collapse they should go on to win their division and land me another winner. But I think the value is on the Bengals ML this weekend, odds of 3.00 or 2/1 or +200 or whatever you want to call it is too big considering how good Cincinnati are too.
• All aboard the fickle Philly bandwagon! -5 at home to Tampa Bay. I still like Philly even with the Sanchez at QB, and Tampa are still a bad team.

Summary

Supercontest Picks:

• Ravens -2
• Jets -2
• Miami (Pick ’em)
• Denver +1
• Green Bay +1

Proper bets:

ATS

• Chiefs -3
• Patriots -7
• Eagles -5

ML

• Colts 3.30 (+230 US)
• Redskins 4.00 (+300)
• Broncos 1.90 (-111)
• Raiders Evens (+100)
• Bengals 3.00 (+200)
• Green Bay Evens (+100)
• Ravens 1.83 (-120)