2016 NFL Week 8 Picks


NFL Power Rankings updated.

Supercontest picks:

Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 at Dallas Cowboys

I have Philly ranked first again after beating the Vikings last week. Dallas are 6th, but 4.5 points is too much for me. A classic case of the home team coming off a bye week.

Buffalo Bills +6.5 home to New England Patriots

I’m still on the Bills bandwagon despite the disappointing loss at Miami last week. Plus going against the Pats is a contrarian move that I need for the very slim chance I have of finishing in the money.

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Carolina Panthers

Another home team off a bye week. So if these teams played on a neutral field it would be a pick ’em? Nonsense.

I chose the Eagles, Cards & bills last week too btw.

San Diego Chargers +5.5 at Denver Broncos

This is currently +4 at Pinny. The Chargers are/were underrated here.

Chicago Bears +6 home to Minnesota Vikings

This is the pick I’m least pleased with. On my pure numbers I like Minny, but subjectively less so. The Bears are currently +4 and I think plenty of people will side with the Vikings so I’m going with another contrarian, balls-to-the-wall style move.

Real money bets haven’t been spectacular so far, looking back at the blog they’ve lost 0.15 units. Could be worse, but hopefully will get better. For this week they are:

ML Bets where the value has gone:

  • Buffalo
  • Washington
  • Cleveland (I’ll be backing the Browns until they win a game at this rate!)
  • Oakland

ML Bets where there’s still some value now:

  • Arizona
  • Philly
  • Detroit

NBA 2016/17 Season Preview


The NBA season starts on tonight. So should really have wrote about it before now. My pre-season bets have a good record, check out the previous 2 years:

2014/15 Season

2015/16 Season

Season Win Totals

Houston Rockets 40.5 games – Over

They’ll be amazing offensively, they’ll surely have a top 5 offence. But defensively er not so much. I’m sure they’ll get to .500 at least providing Harden stays healthy. They won 41 games last year and they’ve upgraded this off season and now have a coach that they know definitely won’t be leaving in the summer.

Utah 45.5 games – Over

Last season they won 40 games, which was below their points differential. They had a load of injuries last year too. They’re much deeper this year and reaching 50 games would not surprise me.

Golden State Warriors 70.5 games – Under

I bet this as soon as Durant signed there. With signing KD and letting a few guys go they aren’t quite as deep. They broke the record last season and with all the media scrutiny surrounding that they won’t be busting a gut to break it again. After last season, with the injuries they suffered in the playoffs their priority should be to rest players a lot more during the season, coast to the no.1 seed and make sure that their stars are healthy for the playoffs. Steve Kerr has recently said that he is going to rest more and experiment. They’ll be so good that they can rest players and coast to 65+ wins. Add in the chances that Curry will never have another season like his 15/16 self.

Charlotte Hornets 41.5 games – Over

I should have bet the Hornets over last season. As long as MKG stays healthy then they’ll get to above .500.

Memphis Grizzlies 45.5 games – Under

Their top players are all either old and or an injury concerns. Parsons hasn’t even been cleared to play. While Gasol is a 7 footer with major foot problems, which does not bode well. The coaching change is a red flag to me. Joerger did an amazing job last year considering the injuries and players he was left with. The big part of coaching is just getting your guys to play hard. DJ has left so we’ll see if that was down to him, or the team/players etc.

Sacramento Kings 31.5 games – Over

Related to the Memphis under, I’m a Dave Joerger fan. He’s got Boogie and enough sidekicks to get them above 31 games.

Brooklyn Nets 19.5 games – Over

They are going to be bad, but not under 20 wins bad. They don’t even own next year’s draft pick so there isn’t an incentive to tank. I am concerned that they might trade Brook Lopez away though.

NBA Championship

The Warriors are the odds on favourites for the title. They’re the shortest price preseason since a bloke called Michael Jordan played in Chicago. GSW are so good that they’d be the favourites even if one of Durant or Curry was injured. The Warriors won 73 games last season and they’re going to be better this season, whilst their main rivals have all got worse:

  • Cavs – Lebron is another year older in his 30s. Last playoffs is the best we may see of Irving. They don’t currently have a decent backup PG.
  • Spurs – They’re really going to miss Duncan and I worry about their defence with Parker and Gasol.
  • Thunder – Durant left them so they’re one large step closer to that irrelevance I spoke of last season. Westbrook may leave in 2 years’ time, but he’s the sort of player that won’t age well as he’s heavily reliant on his athleticism and is a poor shooter.

As long as Lebron is healthy then his team will win the East. His team has won the East the last 6 years which is incredible. So call me Mr Bold but I’m firmly expecting a Cavs Warriors Finals, and the Warriors to win it all.


Best player on a winning team (high seed) – that’s what you need to bear in mind. Which is why I think the odds on Westbrook are ridiculous. The Thunder won’t win enough games for him to be in contention.

KD and Curry may end up splitting votes as they’re on the same team. I think KD should be shorter odds than Curry though. KD will likely score more points, and I don’t think Curry will repeat his all-time great performance of last season.

Elsewhere, Lebron’s odds are too short. The Cavs will get the no.1 seed in the East but he’ll probably coast the regular season again and might have a 2 week break in Miami for some R&R… Kawhi is the best player on a top team but I expect the Spurs to take a step back and he’ll end up sharing the offensive load with LA and Gasol. Harden will put up a lot of points but will have the same issue as Westbrook as his team won’t win enough games.

To sum up: I haven’t put a bet on, as I don’t have any strong feelings.

Rookie of the Year

The ROY usually goes to whoever scores the most PPG.

I don’t watch college hoops as I think it’s a joke. The majority of players aren’t good enough to play professionally in Europe, and the games are boring IMO.

So I’ll probably do what I did last year: watch the first month and keep an eye on the odds.

Coach of the Year

Ok after last year’s travesty I have to adjust the rules to the COY:

  • It usually goes to the coach of the team that has won the most games.
  • or the coach of the team with the most “unexpected” wins (Actual wins – expected wins)
  • It does not go to the coach of the defending champs…unless he’s called Red Auerbach or the Warriors win a record number of games!
  • And nobody wins back to back COY. NOBODY!

I’m still seething after Terry Stotts got screwed out of it. Steve Kerr won it with the black swan event of winning a record 73 games, despite not coaching for more than half the season! The charlatans in the media justified their vote with the narrative of “he set a winning culture there”. Yeah he did that the previous season when I actually backed Kerr at 20/1 and he came 2nd!

The Warriors will win the most games. For Kerr to be the first coach to repeat as COY they would have to win more than 73 games. Lue and Pop are too short for this as I think both teams won’t outperform expectations.

So I’m looking for underrated teams to outperform expectations, which has led me to the following bets:

  • Stevens 16/1
  • Synder 20/1
  • Clifford 50/1
  • Malone 150/1
  • Joerger 250/1

2016 NFL Week 7 Picks


This is a week where there’s plenty of value bets to be had. NFL Power Rankings updated.

Supercontest picks:

Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

After two loses I still have Philly ranked 3rd. Minny are first but they’ve won every game by winning more TOs than their opponents. They’re currently +11 in TOs. Obviously this won’t continue long term.

Buffalo Bills -3

I mentioned the other week that I’m on the Bills bandwagon.

New Orleans +6.5

Kansas City area bang average team. 6.5 points is too much even against the Saints.

Arizona Cardinals -1.5

Easy picks for me to make, I think people are still too high on the Seahawks.

San Francisco 49ers +2

This is the easiest pick of the weekend for me. The 49ers are a bad team, but they’re still better than the Bucs. The line is currently -1 so unfortunately most people will also make this pick now.

Other bets (split into 2 parts as there’s plenty this week):

ML Bets where the value has gone:

  • Oakland
  • San Diego
  • New Orleans
  • San Fran

ML Bets where there’s still some value now:

  • Arizona
  • Buffalo
  • Philly
  • Ravens

2016 NFL Week 6 Picks


First decent week in the SuperContest going 3/5. I’ve already got one point in  after going for San Diego +3 in the Thursday night game. The prime reason for the pick was a contrarian strategy. I was expecting a lot of people to side with Denver, and I’ve got a lot of ground to make up. Unfortunately there wasn’t the number of people picking Denver. Most people prefer to give the Thursday night game a miss, but I incorrectly assumed that more people would be eager to back Denver -3 similar to the level that they were backed at Tampa Bay a couple weeks ago.

Supercontest picks:

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

Spoke briefly about this game mid week. The Philly ML opened up at just under evens at the squarest of square books. That didn’t last long, but there was still plenty of value to be had before it reached the 1.671 it is now.

Oakland Raiders 0

Another game I’ve picked in the SuperContest and backed in real life. You can still back the Raiders at decent odds IMO.

Atlanta Falcons +6.5

Yet again another game I’ve picked in the SuperContest and backed in real life. Based on results this season the Seahawks are overrated, they’re 3-1 but had played 4 of the worst teams in the league so far.

New Orleans +3

The Panthers have been bad this season, and Cam Newton is coming back from a concussion.

Other Bets:

  • Detroit v Rams
  • Dallas at GB

Both ML are still at available at decent odds IMO.

It’s been in the news recently that the NFL viewership is way down compared to last year. Here’s a couple of articles with the reasons why:



Although one reason that hasn’t been mentioned in the above article is that maybe, just maybe, people are finally getting sick of the long drawn out, stop-start nature of a football game. A game lasts 3 hours 10 mins but the ball is only actually in play 11 minutes. I watch RedZone each week as I find just watching the one game mind-numbingly boring to be honest.

NFL Power Rankings


We’ve had week 5 of the NFL season, so it time to release the first batch of my Flash Power Rankings™.

(for smart phone readers click on the icon in the top right with the 3 horizontal lines to view it)

Everybody loves Power Rankings, and most people love complaining about Power Rankings even more. It just sets your urine to boil when some bloke on the internet doesn’t rank your team higher enough, doesn’t it?!

Let’s have a little look at what’s going on:

Best Team

Philadelphia Eagles

Yeah I said it. These rankings aren’t predictive, based on the games so far the Eagles are the best team. They have the best scoring ratio by far, stuffed the Steelers and unluckily lost a close game to the Lions.

Yet just look at the price they opened up at v the Redskins, a team ranked 17th. Hmmm

Worst Team

Cleveland Browns

Clearly the worst team, I don’t think anyone can argue with that.

Best Team with a Losing Record

Arizona Cardinals

They’ve had some strange results so far, mainly due to the difference in turnovers. But they’re still a good team.

He’s not going on about turnovers again is he?!

  1. Lost a close game with the Patriots
  2. Thrashed Tampa Bay. TOs 0-5 (Tampa turned the ball over 5 times)
  3. Lost to the Bills. TOs 5-1.
  4. Lost to the Rams. TOs 5-1 again.
  5. Beat the 49ers TOs 0-3.

Worst Team with a Winning Record

Los Angeles Rams

I spoke about them last week, when my biggest bet was on the Bills to beat them. The Rams are hopeless offensively, with the worst average offensive yards per game, and the worst average points scored per game. The Lions opened up -3 at home to them this week and that’s a good bet.

Most Overrated

Seattle Seahawks

They’re 3-1 but look at the teams they’re faced so far:

  • 26 San Francisco 49ers
  • 27 Los Angeles Rams
  • 29 New York Jets
  • 31 Miami Dolphins

That’s 4 of the bottom 7 ranked teams. But its early days and if they beat the 5th ranked Atlanta Falcons this weekend then they’ll shoot right up the rankings. Looking at the current odds the Falcons are the clear value pick IMO.

Most Underrated

Buffalo Bills

Most other Power Rankings seem to have them in the 20s, I’ve got them 8th based on the games so far.

Although their TO record is +9 which is second only to the Vikings (+11). Neither of which is sustainable.