Arizona Cardinals to win the NFC West at Evens.
Just do it… I’ll even show my workings:
Arizona have currently won 2 more games than both St Louis and Seattle. And by my numbers I would strongly favour Arizona over both of those 2 teams on a neutral field.
Ok let’s check out the remaining schedule:
It looks like the Cards have the toughest remaining schedule. And Seattle have 5 home games. Although 2 of those home games are against teams coming off a bye in San Fran & Pittsburgh. Which I spoke about pre-season. The divisional head-to-head records will be important, the Rams have beaten the Seahawks and Cards this season so far.
Lets have a look at the important stats for the Cards:
- 2nd best points differential behind New England
- 2nd fewest average Penalty Yards against per game behind San Francisco
- Best in total Yards per Offensive Play
- Best in Net Yards gained per pass attempt
- 3rd most efficient scoring offense behind Carolina (!) and New England
- 6th in total Yards per Offensive Play
- 6th in Net Yards gained per pass attempt
So Arizona score a lot of points, and do it efficiently. While they have a good defence, both the Rams and Seattle have the upper hand here. But Arizona’s offense is far superior to those 2 teams.
I’ve mentioned a few times previously that I consider the betting market to underrate Arizona somewhat, and to definitely overrate Seattle. As a result we’re getting generous odds on the Cards to win their division.
The bottom line is that I believe Arizona have a larger chance than the implied 50% probability that they will win the NFC West.
Update: The Cards won their division.
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