Week 4 in the NFL was a very good one for me: I managed a perfect 5-0 record and also won 2.8 points overall in my money bets. It would have been even better if the Browns had managed to win at San Diego before ultimately losing in a Browns-like manner.

Unfortunately week 5 is off to a losing start as I picked Houston -1 at home to the Colts in my Supercontest. After news came out that Luck would miss a second game, and that Hasselbeck would start and wasn’t 100%, the actual line moved to Houston -5. Obviously once the Supercontest lines are announced, they don’t move, so if I can get 4 points extra I’m taking it every time, even if it means backing a team like the Houston Texans.

A smart bet is never a certain-to-win bet. Waking up the next morning it was disappointing to see that the Texans had managed to lose. Key stats from the box score were that the Texans had conceded 125 yards in penalties and lost the important turnover battle 2-0. Remember this table from my post on how important turnovers are?:

Now check out the box score from the Cards 1st loss of the season at home to the Rams:

3 turnovers to nil and they still nearly won. Now all the chat is about how the Cards have been “found out” and “they’re not as good as we thought they were” and other rhetoric.

Combine this with Detroit’s close loss at Seattle and we only have the Cards at -2.5 at Detroit. By my numbers this is the play of the week. Yes, Detriot received a bad call at the end of the game, but they had 2 more turnovers than Seattle, and if you punt the ball 8 times you don’t deserve to win a game. Also the chat has been how Detroit should have won in Seattle, but this Seattle team is a big step down from the past 2 seasons and certainly won’t be returning to the Superbowl this year.

After 4 games Detroit are only scoring on average 16.5 points per game, which is only more than Miami, Jacksonville and San Fran. Bet they wished they had a future Hall of Fame wide receiver..! While Arizona are scoring 37 points on average per game, more than double Detroit! Only New England have a higher average and that’s with hammering Jacksonville. Small sample size warning as it’s only 4 games, but the fact is that Arizona have a much better offence than Detroit. Prior to the Rams game Arizona with Palmer at QB had won 10 games straight. Cardinals -2.5 is my biggest bet of the week.

I mentioned that people still think that Seattle are a better team than they actually are. Cincinnati at -3 at home to the Seahawks is effectively saying that on a neutral field, this would be a pick’em. I have the Bengals as being the better team. I have money on the Bengals at -2.5 too. While I think people in general overrate the running game and running backs, Marshawn Lynch isn’t playing and he’s one of the few real difference makers at that position. Also, Seattle’s offensive line is terrible.

Similarly, Jaguars +3 at Tampa Bay is effectively saying that on a neutral field, this would be a pick’em. No chance. The Jaguars are the better team even though here we have a bad team against a terrible team.  I have some money on the Jags +3 too.

Final pick is a strange one. For weeks now I’ve been bashing Chip Kelly and his amazing offence. But by my numbers Philly -4.5 is a solid pick. Maybe I need new numbers! But on Pinnacle the line is now -6 so I’m not the only crazy person.

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BS ATS stat of the week

There’s been a few contenders for this week’s stupidity award, but the winner has to be:

Eagles are 0-9 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010

Dammit! I knew I shouldn’t have taken the Eagles -4.5. I bet all those people backing it down to -6 wished they had done some proper research.

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Other thoughts: I was tempted by Steelers +3 at SD, but I don’t have faith in Michael Vick. Nor do the sharps as the Steelers are now out to +4. I don’t like to go against line movements late in the week, but I’ve backed Buffalo on the ML at 1.91 (-110 US). Buffalo opened up at -2.5 before going to +1, than back to -1 at Pinny. They have some injuries and there’s been some chat about “who the Bills really are”. I’d say they’re an underrated team with their 2 loses against the Patriots and a sneaky good team in the Giants.

If the Giants were -6.5 at home to the 49ers I may have taken that in the Supercontest, to get the right side of a key number. San Fran have the worst point differential in the league, and I have less faith in Colin Kaepernick than Vick.

Backing the Bears +10 or the Rams +10 are good moves. I’ve backed the Rams on the ML north of 4/1 earlier in the week. Green Bay are rightly the favourites. But it’s not as if it’s impossible for them to lose this game. I think there’s too much Green Bay love generally with talk amongst the squares of them going 16-0. Most books have them around 2.60 ( +160) to win the NFC. If you’ve backing that then good luck to you. So if you’re on the exchanges tonight a low-risk high-reward trade would be laying KC or GB a very low odds.

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Finally, King C asked:

Can you post earlier?
Post comes too late on the Sunday to help

Which is a fair point. I like to get out a mid-week post then one on the weekend on the NFL. I’ve been extremely busy at work, and then out most nights too so I’ve not have time this week.

Next week things should be back to normal with some earlier posts, and I’ve got one about some NBA futures in the pipeline. So there’s something to look forward to!