…and Week 10 is already off to a bad start with the Jets losing mid-week against the Bills. I choose the Jets -2.5 in the Supercontest, they lost the TO battle 4-0 and lost to the returning Rex Ryan. Great.

Jets at -2.5 at home to the Bills is effectively saying that on a neutral field, this was a pick ’em. To me, that’s BS.

There’s plenty that I like this week… I’ve said that the last few weeks though…

Ok the bet of the week is the Steelers to beat the Browns. I’m on them ML, ATS (-4 ) and in the Superconest at -4.5. The Steelers really should have covered last week against Oakland, this week they’re against Johnny Manziel and the Browns. Johney Manziel currently has completed 51.8% of his passes this season. Smallish sample size warning, but he’s terrible. I think the Steelers are a little bit underrated as they’ve played a lot of matches without Big Ben, and they’re so much better with him at QB, as mentioned last week.

2nd best bet of the week IMO is another underrated team in the Arizona Cardinals at Seattle. Check out a recent post on the Cards for the reasons I’ve backed them outright to win this game, and also +3 in the Supercontest.

Dallas opened up at +2 at Tampa, I took that. Took them on the ML too. Dallas have lost their last 6 games, but let’s remember that they’re playing Tampa Bay this weekend. And Tampa Bay suck. Cowboys at +1.5 on the Supercontest too.

Final Supercontest pick was Kansas City +6 at Denver. +6 was definitely too high as it’s currently down to +4 on Pinnacle. I backed Kansas City ML early in the week at a massive price too.

Some ATS bets that were in the consideration for Supercontest picks were:

• Patriots -7 at Giants. Looks like a Mug/Square pick on first glance. But I make that the Pats should be favoured by more even though they’re on the road as they’re just that good. Also check out the Giants TO differential: +12! So the limited success they’ve had this season is partially attributed to a totally unsustainable TO diff. And the Pats turn it over the least in the league.
• Washington +1.5 at home to New Orleans. The Saints defence is just horrendous, the worst in the league.

Summary

Supercontest Picks:

• Jets-2.5 FFS
• Steelers -4.5
• Cowboys+1.5
• Chiefs +6
• Cardinals +3

Proper bets:

ATS

• Panthers -4.5
• Steelers -4
• Cowboys +2
• Ravens -5.5
• Redskins +1.5
• Patriots -7
• Rams -6.5

ML

• Cowboys 2.10 (+1.10 US)
• Chiefs 3.75 (+2.75)
• Arizona 2.5 (+1.50)
• Steelers 1.45 (-222)