November was my best month ever betting, and December was pretty good too. Now I’m sure you’re thinking the following:
But your NFL bets haven’t been that good?
While they’re in profit, I’ll admit they haven’t had an amazing season. But the vast majority of my betting activity, both in terms of number of bets placed, and the stakes involved, are on Basketball.
Since the start of November my betting bank has more than doubled. And the betting bank is more than 5 times as big as what it was and the end of that horror run I suffered last season and wrote about in my Losing Streak post. So this post can serve as the opposite to that one.
Basketball is a game of (scoring) runs, and betting is a series of streaks too. Bet long enough and you’ll go on a bad losing streak, or a really good one. Not enough is said generally about the psychological aspects of betting, especially when going on one of these streaks.
On a losing streak it’s easy to get despondent, lose focus and consider completely change your previously successful methods. Whilst on a winning streak a natural tendency is to become complacent.
So, how should you respond to a winning streak?:
- Quit your job. Tell your boss to stick it as you’ve ‘solved betting’.
- Loosen up the wallet. With your winnings you’ve got a buffer zone to place some bets that you wouldn’t be placing otherwise.
- Ease off for a period of time. You’ve had some good luck so don’t take the piss!
- Simply carry on
The correct answer is 4. The main reason for this purple patch is putting in the work. So I’m going to carry on doing that as well as to continue treating each bet as an independent event. One of the reasons that my NFL record is no way near as good enough as my Basketball record this season is related. I’ve been putting the work in for Basketball, but not so much for the NFL. I’m much more profitable on Basketball, and I prefer watching it much more than NFL. Case in point; the other week I was watching the Cavs blow out the 76ers rather than watch the NFL. Plus I didn’t have any bets on the Cavs-76ers game. That says it all really. I’d rather watch the 76ers with no wager than the NFL.
It’s almost a cliché about specialising which sports you bet on. But it’s so true.