Keen readers may have noticed that my SuperContest picks went 0/5. They were having a bad start to the season anyway, but that’s a real kick in the crotch! It’s pretty demoralising when you get the same number of points as the few people who forgot to submit any picks this week…
With a grand total of 5 points out of a possible 20, I’m currently 123rd out of 134 participants.. I’m beginning to think this may not be my year!
I’m not too bothered. It’s close to flipping coins, even the best bettors in the world are only hitting around 54% ATS. If you flipped a coin 5 times and were hoping for heads, 5 tails would come up 3.1% of the time. Which is very unlikely, but when you’re flipping a coin a set of 5 times, 17 times a season, then eventually you’re going to go 0/5.
My pre match bets were winless as well. Great. So after week 4 of the NFL season I’m up a total of £30. Which is down to a couple of big wins and many loses. I’ve said a few times on this blog before that betting on the NFL early on in the season is difficult as there’s not a lot of current information to go on. I’ve been including prior information from last season in my calculations so far, but it looks like Kansas City, Arizona, Jets etc aren’t as good as last year while teams like Philly (so far) are much improved.
Anyway looking ahead, I think the Giants are a massive price at Green Bay. Which looks like a case of the home team coming off a bye week being overrated. But the bet of the week looks like the Bills to win at the Rams. The Rams to me are clearly the worst team with a winning record. Only the Bears and Titans score less points per game than them, whilst they have the least average offensive yards per game in the league. Let’s have a look a their 4 games so far:
- Stuffed 28-0 by the mighty 49ers of San Fran…
- Won 9-3 home to the Seahawks, despite putting on 26 less yards but wining the TO battle 1-0.
- Won at Tampa Bay 37-32, despite putting on 152 less yards! (TOs were 2-2).
- Beat the Cards by only 4 points when they won the TO battle 5-1.
Doesn’t make for good reading. So I really like the Bills this week…but considering my recent record, what the hell do I know!