Supercontest

I scored 2.5 points last week with 2 wins and a push. It was a tricky week all round so on the plus side I avoided a losing week. I currently lie joint 6^th overall out of 122 contestants with 17.5 points out of a possible 25. I’m 1.5 points behind the leader who has 19 points. Looking through the past picks the current leader

• didn’t choose Carolina in week 3 when Brees was out injured
• didn’t pick the Jags in week 4 when Luck was out injured
• Nor did they pick Houston last week when Luck was still out when it was expected he would return.

In fact looking at the leader’s picks; out of 25 selections they have chosen 25 favourites! That is correct, they have yet to select an underdog! I don’t think that they need their Wise Guy Card revoked as it would never have been issued in the first place. They’re laying on average 4.7 points per game.

Don’t hate the player, hate the game.

It they want to only pick favourites then good luck to them.

Proper bets

Last week my proper bets had a better week going 3-2 winning 0.73 points. So far this season on the bets I’ve posted here I’m up 3.98 points all together for a totally unsustainable ROI of 36%.

Note: I’m not placing the same amount on each bet, I’m not going to say exactly how much each bet is or give a unit value for each bet. For the purposes of recording bets on this blog I’ll just be using level stakes with each bet worth 1 point. Ok?

Looking ahead to this week:

Arizona -3 at Pittsburgh is my favourite bet this week and my only easy pick for the Supercontest. Arizona is 4-1 and more importantly around the top of the league in important stats such as points scored per game, point differential, yards per offensive play, net yards gained per pass attempt, expected points gained by all defence etc.. If Arizona were putting up numbers like they have but were called the “Dallas Cowboys” or the “New England Patriots” then the spread would be a lot higher than -3.

I bet the Jets at -4.5 earlier in the week, the line is -6 in my Supercontest and currently -7 on Pinnacle. I don’t think it’ll move past -7 and may go to -6.5 by kickoff. I’ve picked the -6. Both teams are currently exceeded their pre-season expectations.

This is where it gets tricky…

Usually there’s 6 or 7 games that I’ve highlighted as Supercontest picks, this week I’ve got to scrap the barrel. Mentioned earlier that I would only bet Carolina +7 at Seattle if I had to choose a side, I do have a small amount on the Carolina ML at 3.90 (+290 US) which I think is too high. I also bet the Giants +4.5 on the Monday night at Philly but the line has moved up to +5.5 on the back on all their injuries. Not good.

I’m picking Detroit -3 at home to Chicago. I don’t think Detroit are as bad as what they’ve shown so far this season. In their last game they played Arizona, gave up 6 turnovers and unsurprisingly got destroyed. Their 2 loses before that were at Seattle and home to Denver, another 2 good teams. Chicago have won their last 2 games with Jay Cutler back beating Oakland and Kansas City. Just shows you that there’s not much I like when I’m choosing the only winless team and they’re laying points..

I’m picking Jacksonville again this week. They’re a pick’em at home to Houston. 2 bad teams where the winner will probably be the one who turns it over the least. There’s not much between these 2, so I’m siding with the home team as it’s a pick’em (currently Jags -1 on Pinny).

Finally I’m choosing Cleveland +4.5 at home to Denver. Denver has been relying on their impressive defence, although they’ll be missing DeMarcus Ware. Cleveland are a little underrated and Manning still looks awful. Denver have managed to cover every game so far this season…

So, it’s tough week and I’m less happy than usual with the picks I’ve made. Got to pick 5 though. Other thoughts: I was tempted by Baltimore -2.5 at San Francisco as I don’t think they played anywhere near their full ability so far this season. I would go with New England at -7.5 rather than the Colts as New England are just a juggernaut who rarely turn it over. I’d back Tennessee over Miami even though…

---

BS ATS stat of the week

Miami is 18-4 ATS as a road dog of less than five points since 2008

It doesn’t matter what the line is, just get on Miami!