NFL Week 7

In week 6 I was whinging that it was the hardest week to pick games. Well week 7 is one of the easiest. Let’s get down to it:

I mentioned mid-week that my bet of the week is Philly at Carolina. I’m on Philly ML and +3, I’m picking them at +3 in my Supercontest too. Carolina are overrated and are sitting at 6-0 due to an incredibly easy schedule and they have the best turnover differential in the league at +6. They’re not going to keep on having on average 1.2 more turnovers than their opposition each game.

Turnovers are massively important to who wins a game, but they’re also pretty random. So generally speaking it’s a good idea to look at opposing teams who are coming out ahead in the TO battle (Carolina), and back teams who are currently doing poorly in this respect. Detroit have the worst TO differential in the league at -8. They’ve had a tough start to the season in terms of the quality of the teams they’ve faced. They play Minnesota on Sunday. Now have a look at my Power Rankings, and look at Minnesota’s stats. Anything stand out?

Give yourself a pat on the back and a well done if you identified Minnesota as currently having the most efficient defence (in terms of offensive yards allowed/points allowed). Now do we think the Vikings have a top defence? Or is this something that they’ve been lucky with in the small number of games played so far?

Gold stars for those that reckon they’ve been lucky and are expecting some regression towards the mean.

There’s more: the Vikings have the least efficient offence overall in terms of Yards per Offensive play and the least efficient passing offence in Net Yards gained per Pass Attempt. To be fair, Detroit can’t defend the pass. But if this was the first game of the season the Lions would be -3, but instead they’re getting points. This should be my play of the week instead of Philly actually. I’m on Detroit ML big-time at 2.15 (+115 US) and +2.5 for the Supercontest.

I backed Atlanta early in the week at -3.5 at Tennessee. Mariota’s not playing which makes this bet sweeter and I’m choosing the Falcons -4.5 on the Supercontest too. Easy pick as they’re -6 with Pinnacle as of the time of writing.

Another easy pick for the Supercontest is Kansas City -1.5. Although Roethlisberger is listed as Questionable, Landry Jones is expected to play. While Jones played against Arizona going 8 for 12 for 168 yards and two touchdowns. I’d put more weight in him getting drafted in the 4th round in 2013, nearly getting cut and not playing a snap in the NFL till last Sunday.

I’m gonna be livid if Big Ben gets on the Deer-antler spray tonight and makes a miraculous recovery and plays on Sunday.

Final Supercontest pick is New Orleans +4.5 at the Colts. I don’t think there’s much between these two teams, both have bad defences with QBs playing below their best. I’m on the Saints ML at 2/1 and also took the initial line of +6.

Other thoughts:

I’m on the Browns ML at the Rams at 3.40 (+240) and I was tempted by the Browns +6.5. I don’t think Dallas has been as bad as people have been making out since Romo went out so +3.5 on them on the Giants was a pick I was tempted by as well. The Jets +9 was another pick that was very close, I’d be surprised if lots of people are picking the Pats -9 in the Supercontest. It’s such a square pick IMO.

Kirk Cousins is bad, but Tampa is terrible. So Washington should cover the 3.5 points, even with Tampa coming off a bye week. And if I had to pick a side between Miami and Houston, it would be Miami -4 even though…

BS ATS stat of the week

Dolphins are 9-29 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003

..I’m wasting my time looking at passing efficiency, scoring efficiency etc. I should be looking at the “trends”.

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