NFL Week 8

Week 7 was a let-down. I had my first losing week in the Supercontest going 2-3, and my proper bets lost -2.09pts too. What the hell happened?!

The blame game:

  • Detroit gave up a double digit lead and lost by 9
  • Atlanta missed a late field goal, had a TD disallowed and weren’t able to cover
  • Philly won the turnover battle at Carolina 3-1, but managed to lose by 11!

Being the right side, isn’t always going to be the winning side.

Let’s move on and look ahead, as there’s another weekend of NFL with some value to be had:

Last week I went against Minnesota, and I’m doing the same again this week for the same reasons. Minnesota’s 4-2 record flatters them. I pointed out that last week they had the most efficient scoring defence in the league. Well Green Bay have overtaken them, (check out the Power Rankings page), but Minny are still second here which is mainly due to luck rather than skill.

I’m on the Bears big time on the ML at 2.20 (+110 US) and ATS at +2, plus first Supercontest pick at +1.5. I’m more opposing the Vikings rather than backing the Bears due to Minny being overrated. The Bears aren’t a good team either, but are better with ‘Super’ Jay Cutler at the QB.

Second game to briefly discuss is Baltimore at home to San Diego. The Ravens could quiet possibly be the best 1-6 team of all time! They’re definitely not as bad as their record. I rank them 18th in the league.  They actually the only team in the NFL to currently have played only 2 home games, they’ve had an awful schedule. Turnovers have been a big problem for the Ravens with a TO differential of -7, only the Cowboys (-9) and the Colts (-8) are worse in this respect. San Diego are -6 in TOs and actually have the highest average offense yards per game in the league (435 yards per game). Apart from constantly getting his wife pregnant, Phillip Rivers is also good at throwing a football. The Chargers’ defence is so bad that he has to air it out to keep them in games. They have the 6th worse points per game against and they are the worst D in the league in Yards against per Offensive Play.

The Ravens lost a close game in the playoffs last year at the eventual champions, the Patriots. I don’t think they’ve gone from being one of the best teams in the league to being one of the worst. Hopefully the real Ravens will stand up this weekend. I’m on them -3.5 in real life and at -3.5 in the Supercontest. This line is too low.

I’m on Arizona -4.5 & ML in bets and at -5 in the Supercontest at Cleveland. The Cards still aren’t getting the respect they deserve. They should be favoured by 7 points at least. Especially as it’s not clear Josh McCown will start for the Browns, he’ll either start and obviously won’t be 100% or Johnny ‘Football’ will have to sober up and take the field. Arizona are one of the top 3 teams in the league so them only having to cover 5 points at a team like Cleveland is a good bet for me.

4th pick in the Supercontest is an easy one: Houston -3 at home to Tennessee with Mariota out.

Final Supercontest pick is the Lions again this week. Even though they are a bad team, and they’ve sacked a bunch of coaches, Kansas City should not be favoured by 5 points over them.

Other thoughts:

There were 3 other games that very nearly made to to Supercontest picks: Giants -3, 49ers +8.5 & Cowboys +6.

I backed the Giants at New Orleans at +3, and I’m also on the Giants ML at 2.40 (+140 US). New Orleans have won their last 2 games and people think they’re a good team again. While the Giants were really lucky to beat Dallas at home last week. New Orleans at -3 is basically staying that on a neutral field, New Orleans would be slightly favoured over the Giants. I’m not having that.

I was tempted by the 49ers only because the total is very low at 39.5 points but the spread is 8.5 points. It’s easier for the favourite to cover a high scoring game rather than a low scoring game. Both teams struggle to score points, and I wouldn’t want to back the Rams to cover 8.5 points against anyone. I have actual money on the 49ers +8.5.

I’ve backed Dallas ML at 3.1 (+210 US) and ATS at +6. I still think that Seattle are overrated.

Final thought: the big game of the weekend is at Denver. 2 Undefeated teams, 2 great defences. Denver have such a home field advantage with the altitude but Green Bay are the superior team. so if I had to choose a side, it would be with the Packers -3. Another good reason is because…

BS ATS stat of the week

Mike McCarthy is 9-0 ATS off a bye.

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