Arizona Cardinals to win the NFC West at Evens.

Just do it… I’ll even show my workings:

Arizona have currently won 2 more games than both St Louis and Seattle. And by my numbers I would strongly favour Arizona over both of those 2 teams on a neutral field.

Ok let’s check out the remaining schedule:

It looks like the Cards have the toughest remaining schedule. And Seattle have 5 home games. Although 2 of those home games are against teams coming off a bye in San Fran & Pittsburgh. Which I spoke about pre-season. The divisional head-to-head records will be important, the Rams have beaten the Seahawks and Cards this season so far.

Lets have a look at the important stats for the Cards:

Team

• 2^nd best points differential behind New England
• 2^nd fewest average Penalty Yards against per game behind San Francisco

Offense

• Best in total Yards per Offensive Play
• Best in Net Yards gained per pass attempt
• 3^rd most efficient scoring offense behind Carolina (!) and New England

Defence

• 6^th in total Yards per Offensive Play
• 6^th in Net Yards gained per pass attempt

So Arizona score a lot of points, and do it efficiently. While they have a good defence, both the Rams and Seattle have the upper hand here. But Arizona’s offense is far superior to those 2 teams.

I’ve mentioned a few times previously that I consider the betting market to underrate Arizona somewhat, and to definitely overrate Seattle. As a result we’re getting generous odds on the Cards to win their division.

The bottom line is that I believe Arizona have a larger chance than the implied 50% probability that they will win the NFC West.

Update: The Cards won their division.