So I finished my Supercontest with 47 points out of a possible 85 (55%) which was good enough for joint 17th out of 122. I was 3 points off the top and 1.5 points away from finishing in the money. Prior to the competition I set myself the low target off getting over 50% and not disgracing myself, so at least I achieved that!
As for my actual bets, they went 46-49-2 for a regular season ending total of +7.6 points for a ROI of 7.8%. Not a spectacle season, but at least we have a profit, especially when the amount of work I’ve put in the NFL have been reduced this season.
If we have a look at these numbers further my ML bets went 31-24 for +18.86 points, while my ATS bets went 14-25-2 for –12.26 points! Also there was a single future, which was a win on the Cards wining their division. For the past few seasons my ML bets have been very good while my ATS bets have a much lower, but still positive ROI. The *crude model I’ve created does a much better job calculating a team chance of winning rather than ATS. I may do some work on this to improve it if I ever have a chance.
Ok on to the games and there’s a lot I like.
Minnesota Vikings v Seattle Seahawks
Seattle are the “in form team” coming into the playoffs. I was quite harsh on Seattle earlier on in the season, I thought they were overrated. While they are no doubt a top team (I’ve got them ranked 2nd) I still think they’re overrated on the road at Minnesota. Minny opened up around 2/1, which isn’t showing them much respect. Although to be honest I haven’t shown the Vikings much repect this season by opposing them most weeks then complaining about how lucky they’ve been. But I’m on the Minny ML, and would be even if the weather was fine. It’s going to be extremely cold in Minny this weekend, also Lynch is out, but he’s just a running back…yeah I said it, the majority of RBs are overrated.
Washington Redskins v Green Bay Packers
Remember the days when the Packers were undefeated and the cool pick to win the Superbowl? Remember when the squares were parroting that “you don’t back against Aaron Rodgers bro”? Well the Packers opened up as underdogs to the Redskins. That’s crazy IMO. I took the Packers +1 at evens straight away. The Packers are still the underdogs. The Redskins are easiest the worst team in the playoffs, by my numbers I’d expect the Packers to be favoured at Washington…Maybe Kirk Cousins is really good after all?
Cincinnati Bengals v Pittsburgh Steelers
Accounting for Bengals performances without Dalton, and Steelers performances with Big Ben, I like the Bengals, another ML bet. The Bengals are a good all-round team and are underrated here.
Houston Texans v Kansas City Chiefs
Even at low odds there’s value on the Chiefs here. I didn’t bet the Chiefs early in the week but they’ve drifted slightly and I’ve backed them.
*What I mean by a crude model is based around power rankings of the teams. More info on mine here.
A much more sophisticated model would take into account the players playing, simulate the game thousands of times accounting for game states (ie generally speaking teams have more efficient play calling when trailing, while team leading are much more conservative).
- Bengals 2.21 (+121)
- Vikings 3.10 (+210)
- Chiefs 1.67 (-149)
- Packers +1 2.02 (+102)