2016 NFL Week 3 Picks


First week in the SuperContest was poor, going 2/5, but last week was worse, going 1/5. I was feeling really good about my picks at kickoff too!

It’s pretty disappointing to only have 3 points, but it is only after 2 weeks. I usually write my NFL post on Saturdays, but I’m busy all weekend so I’m getting it out early.

I’ve only got one bet placed prior to kickoff, that’s on the Vikings at Carolina. I’ve found it a lot easier to spot value in play during the early part of the season so far.

Supercontest picks:

Buffalo Bills +4

This is Arizona’s first away game, and it’s outside in the cold at Buffalo. After only 2 weeks people overreacts to results, and the NFL is really random, and some teams have only played at home or away.

Arizona are currently 7-0 in turnovers which is unsustainable so some immediate reversion towards the mean would be appreciated!

New York Giants -4.5

The Giants are 2-0 despite being 0-4 in TOs. This is Washington’s first away game. I watched them last week and I wasn’t impressed.

Tennessee Titans -1.5

I’m making this pick as Oakland have given up approximately 5000+ yards in each of the first 2 games.

Update: I changed this pick last minute to Chicago +7.5, which was +6.5 on Pinnacle at the time whilst Tenn had drifted to +1.

Baltimore Ravens 0

This isn’t a pick’em game. The Ravens should be given up points.

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5

I’m not put off by the number, although I don’t know what I’m thinking taking 3 home favourites in a week! If we just look at the stats: Denver fluked a victory over the Panthers in week 1, and the Bengals were unlucky to lose to the Steelers last week. First home game for Cinci, first away game for Denver. I think Cinci is the better team and the spread should be a little higher.

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