Hello loyal readers, Flash is back! I’ve been away the past few days for a wedding. It’s been about a week since the last post, which is the limit that I have set myself between posts. Ideally I’d like to get out at least 2 posts a week.
Anyway as it’s been a while, and considering the time of year: now’s the perfect opportunity to get a short quick post about Baseball out.
Baseball’s the only sporting interest I have this time of year. Even then I don’t watch a lot of games. But I do follow what’s going on and whilst I don’t often bet on individual games, every year I’ll bet on the division winners. There’s 162 regular season games in MLB, so during the long course of the season opportunities will arise for a highly trained, patient value-seeker.
When?
- If there’s an over-reaction or a under-reaction in the betting market to a team going on a winning/losing streak.
- Opposing an overrated team. They may be overrated because every man and their dog tipped them to do well (Like Seattle pre-season). Or they may be overrated as they’re a big name team, or they were very good last season.
- There may be an over-reaction or a under-reaction in the betting market as a result of a trade or injury.
Very nice. So who’s your money on then?
AL East
New York Yankees at 2.38 (+138 US)
Currently 0.5 games behind the Blue Jays. It’s not looking good. The Blue Jays have won their last 10 games and are slaughtering opponents like diseased pigs.
AL Central
No bets in this division. I’m kicking myself for not getting on the Royals when Detroit were on top. KC are 11 games up and most bookies aren’t even taking bets on them winning their division now.
AL West
Houston Astros at 11.00 (+1000)
The Astros started the season straight out of the blocks. So I took a punt on them in a tough division. They’re currently in first place with a 2 game lead over the LA Angels. The market currently has them at 1.83 now, which implies 54.6% chance of winning their division.
NL East
New York Mets at 5.50 (+450)
I was the least happy with this bet shortly after placing it. You know when you place a bet and sometimes a day or two later you’re questioning whether you should have placed it. Perhaps I was over thinking things as when I placed it I felt it was good odds with Washington being too short as the hot favourites to win this division.
The Mets are currently up 3.5 games over the Washington Nationals. The odds are all over the place for this division: some bookies have the Mets slightly over evens, others have the Nationals slightly over evens.
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals at 2.10 (+110)
The Cards are up 7 games over the Pirates and they are currently at 1.11, which is probably a touch too low. I won’t be hedging my position. Like the vast majority of my bets, I won’t hedge winning positions as I don’t hedge losing ones. Consistency: one bet and ride it out.
NL West
LA Dodgers at 1.50 (-200)
Considering the talent at their disposal, and the largest payroll in MLB, the Dodgers are ‘only’ 3.5 games up over the Giants. It’s the lowest price I’ve backed in these markets, but the Dodgers definitely have a better chance than the implied 67% I backed them at.
Trivia Question of the Week Fortnight
I should keep on top of this.. a while ago I asked:
Which sport is played on the largest playing field?
I wouldn’t blame you if you said AFL/Aussie Rules, that pitch is huge. But the correct answer is Polo. The outdoor Polo field is 300 yards long and 160 yards wide, slightly larger than nine football fields. No wonder they need a horse to get about!
Next question, which I’ll answer before the year is out:
In soccer, which is the only club that has won the Champions League/European Cup more times than it has won it’s domestic League?