Tag Archives: Peyton Manning

NFL Week 2

Week 2 in the NFL could be called “Overreaction Week”. After only one round of games the media and fans have been quick to decide who’s finished, who’s the next big thing, which team is definitely going to the Superbowl and which teams are ball-achingly bad. It’s understandable; under-reactions don’t sell newspapers or get those clicks, do they?

Last post I mentioned how the main area of overreaction was to Peyton Manning’s poor game against an excellent defence. While I bet on Denver on the ML, I didn’t pick them +3 in my supercontest. I hope that won’t be a decision I regret…

Joe Flacco played worse than Manning in the low scoring game between their 2 sides last Sunday. I am siding with the Ravens -5.5 at the Raiders. Those points aren’t enough to show the disparity between the 2 teams here. The Ravens are somewhat underrated coming into this game, and Flacco should at least play closer to his mean level of performance considering the defence he’s against this week. Oakland have a injured QB in Carr who should start against one of the league toughest defences, even without Suggs. The betting market now has the Ravens at -6.5.

Another overreaction has been to the debut of Marcus Mariota. Yeah he may be the next “elite” QB but let’s remember that he played Tamp Bay. I reckon I could throw a couple TD passes against those mugs… but I do have an arm like a traction engine, honest. The Titans are at -1 at Cleveland. I’m leaving that game alone as I don’t know how good Mariota or the Titans really are yet. But if I had to pick a side it would be the Titans, simply because Johnny Manziel will start and he looks terrible.

He looks terrible, even nowhere near a football field

Following the result between the Titans and Tampa Bay there’s been a strong reaction in the opposite way for Tampa. They were expected to be around +7 at New Orleans, but after getting walloped they’re +10. This isn’t the New Orleans team of a few years ago, Superstar Jimmy Graham suits up for another team now so I’m not touching this game with a cattle prod. But if I had to, it would be TB +10.

Dallas +5.5 at Philly is my second choice this week. The market seems to love Philly and “Chip Kelly’s offense blah blah blah”. Dallas won a game against the Giants that they should have lost. But they did win a game where they lost 3 TOs and didn’t win 1 themselves. Yes Philly’s a good team but so too are Dallas and 5.5 points is too much, so give them to me thank you.

I backed Minny last week at San Fran. The 49ers had the audacity to beat them 20-3! Prior to that game some people were saying that the 49ers were the worst team in football. Plenty of money was on the under 6.5 games too. One good result and the 49ers are “only” +5.5 points at Pittsburgh?! I’m taking the Steelers at -5.5.

The Buffalo Bills had an impressive win against the Colts last Sunday. For me, one of the most important stats from that victory between 2 good teams was the 3-0 TOs to the Bills. The Bills are a good team, but not as good as the Patriots. -1 on the Patriots doesn’t seem enough. One good game and Rex Ryan goes from roundly mocked to universally praised? Have people forgot that he has a tattoo of his wife wearing a no.6 Mark Sanchez Jets jersey for Christ sakes?!

What sort of a man would do such a thing?!

Final selection is the Colts -7 at home to the Jets. They had a bad game away to a good team. The Jets beat up a team with Johnny Manziel  at QB. If this was the first game of the seeason that line would probably be -9.5. I know, it’s not the first game of the season. There’s the information of the first game that has now been taken into account…too much so I reckon.

Update:  3-2. Dallas won at Philly. The Patriots and Steelers covered in their wins. But Baltimore lost at Oakland, and the Colts lost to the Jets.

Easy Money

Week one of the NFL is in the books. I got off to a good start in my Supercontest going 4-1, with the Vikings letting me down at San Francisco. Nice start, but I’m sure some nightmare weeks will come.

I sided with 5 favourites this week all between -3.5 and -2.5, it was generally a good week all round for the favourites, going 8-5 ATS on Sunday. As a result there’s been plenty of stories about how Vegas had a terrible weekend on the NFL. Favourites winning is usually bad for bookies. Their worst hits coming with Green Bay and Miami winning ATS.

A story about Vegas losing money?

Boo. Hoo.

Don’t shed too many tears, they’ll be millions in profit soon enough. These stories are great PR for bookies though. With the implication being that gambling is a get rich-quick scheme that everyone should be taking part in. Quite often you’ll read an article about some bloke who won thousands on a parlay/accumulator, which attracts more people to join the masses who fill out these out every weekend and never win anything.

Generally speaking, gambling stories are about people winning money. The bookies don’t want to promote stories about losers. In the media I think you’re far more likely to hear when bookies have a bad event than a good one. This is definitely the case in real life interactions with people. Whenever your friends/work colleagues/random guy at the bar start talking about gambling, it’s always about how much money they’ve won.

“Hey, I made $ betting on the football this weekend” (I’m a winner!)

You’ll never hear this:

“I lost $ on the football this weekend” (what a loser I am!)

It’s understandable. If you’ve lost money, you’ve not going to want to talk about it. Spend a game day on Twitter and you’d think everyone makes money!

Quick tip: I like Denver at Kansas City on Thursday night. ML around 2.45 (+145 US) or +3 on the spread. Sure Manning has had 17 neck surgeries, has no feelings in his finger tips and played poorly against Baltimore (who have a great defence)… but he’s still a good QB and there’ll be some reversion towards to mean, hopefully immediately. Kansas City beat a poor team in Houston. They got a great defence too but an average QB at best in Alex Smith. It’ll be a low scoring game but I think the value’s on the Broncos.

Update: Peyton Manning played better and Denver beat Kansas City 31-24.