Tag Archives: Drew Brees

Sharp or Square

Another 3-2 week from my 5 Supercontest picks last week in the NFL. Out of 122 contestants in the contest I’ve entered I’m currently tied for 16th place on 10 points. The leader has 13 points. Not bad so far. When you’ve got a site called Winners Win on Sports you better not suck!

Looking at this past week’s picks from all contestants I was surprised at how few people chose Carolina -4.5 at home to New Orleans. Out of 122 contestants only 45 made this obvious pick.

In the official LVH Supercontest; 41% of contestants chose Carolina. In the LVH you have to make you picks before 11am on Saturday, either in person or via a proxy, so someone has to physically be at the LVH in Las Vegas to make your picks and once they’re in they can’t be amended.

In the contest I’m in, only 37% chose Carolina. The picks have to be in by 12pm on Saturday, done online and you can change your picks as many times as you want before the deadline.

I’m amazed that only 37% picked Carolina. It was most obvious pick to make all season. As mentioned in the previous post you were getting the Panthers at -4.5 when they should have been -10. If you said that Carolina -10 was a fair line, and discounting the chance of a push (for which you would get a ½ point), then falling either side of that line was 50%. If instead you could get Carolina -4.5 then by my numbers that would have around a 64% chance of covering.

So why the hell would you not pick Carolina?!:

  • What’s going on? You weren’t aware that Drew Brees was ruled out. You’re not on Twitter, or you were under a rock for a week, or all your attention wasn’t on an ultimately unimportant Supercontest!
  • Better value elsewhere. You found 5 other games where you thought the line was out by 5.5 points or more! You could fill this one under the category of “Deluded”.
  • I know best. Despite the betting market being at -10, you knew better and still thought that Carolina -4.5 was a fair line. (There were actually 2 guys in my league that went with New Orleans +4.5, one of which is bottom of the league).
  • Fuck Cam Newton! You hate cheering for Cam Newton. When you see him do his “stupid” Superman celebration you have this unrelenting urge to put your foot through the TV.
  • Preciousness. You’re a fan of the Saints and for illogical reasons cannot pick against that particular group of football players.
  • Laziness. “I’ve already submitted 5 picks this week. I can’t be bothered to pick up my smart phone and do that shit all over again!”

Perhaps I’m holding everyone to a high standard. But by the time of the deadline, if you have actively not chosen Carolina -4.5 then you’re a not a Sharp.