NFL Week 12

Week 12 is here already. Where is the season going?

Bet of the week for me is the Patriots at Denver. I’ve taken them -3 in the Supercontest and -2.5 with some actual money. New England is clearly still the best team and I’d take them to cover those points, despite Denver’s HFA, great defence and Brock Rottweiler at QB.

Yet again I’m opposing the Minnesota Vikings. Call me Mr Unimaginative but I’m taking Atlanta in a pick ’em at home to those lot. Even though I said last time Atlanta were the worst team with a winning record…

Biggest bet in terms of actual money is the Steelers at Seattle. They opened up +5.5, which was a stupid line. They’re +3.5 in the Supercontest, which I’ve taken as well and I’m on them on the ML at  3.0 (+200 US). Steelers are slightly underrated and Seattle are still overrated. Steelers are coming off a bye week, which as mentioned before has an advantage although not as much as what the betting market generally perceives. Pus Seattle have some injury concerns, notably Marshawn Lynch, even though he’s just a RB, he’s one of the very best.

Last Supercontest pick is the one I’m least happy with: Houston -3 at home to the Saints. It took me ages to decide on this last pick. Jets -3.5 at home to the Dolphins got some serious consideration, but in the end that’s clearly a square line, especially with Revis out. I like them to win outright, but I don’t like being the wrong side of a key number in this one. Arizona -10.5 at 49ers was another one, but I hate laying double digit road teams.


Supercontest Picks:

  • Panthers +1.5
  • Jets -3.5
  • Falcons (Pick ’em)
  • Steelers +3.5
  • Patriots -3

Proper bets:


  • Steelers +5.5
  • Cardinals -9.5
  • Patriots -2.5


  • Eagles Evens (+100 US)
  • Panthers Evens (+100)
  • Texans 1.72 (-139)
  • Jets 1.60 (-167)
  • Bills 3.25 (+225)
  • Steelers 3.0 (+200)

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